IEA Revises Oil Demand Forecast For 2010 And 2011

Progressively more expensive, demand and offer in the global oil market crude oil was traded last month. The background was on the one hand, positive developments in the financial markets, and supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea. At the beginning of the month August the gobbled up oil assets (BRENT) rose to a three-month high, before then due to comfortable supply quantities and renewed problems in the global economy to around $80 / barrel fell back. In OECD countries, inventories fell in June at 2.76 billion barrels. The current demand may be enough for a total of 61 days. Preliminary data for the month of July indicate an increase of 21.5 million barrels. The stocks for products and crude oil storage vessels are, however, further fallen with increased production for products in the United States, and therefore overall higher stocks could be created.

Global oil supply rose in July, after Norway ended his maintenance work on various delivery platforms, and the OPEC increased output Another 850,000 barrels / day. The global demand for oil will increase in the years 2010 and 2011 based on current estimates of the IEA for the now positively stained global economic Constitution in the current year to 86.6 million barrels per day and on 87.9 million barrels per day in 2011. A weaker performance of the world economy could cut demand but 290,000 in 2010 and 1.2 million respectively. This depends on whether the State 5.09 continue to run or not. The OPEC crude oil supply rose by 220,000 barrels per day in July to an average of 29.2 million barrels. Substantial increases were the producing countries of Nigeria and the Arab Emirates.

The necessary reduction in OPEC crude capacity could in the future slightly lower drop out. The liquefied petroleum gas production will increase in the years 2010 and 2011 but each around 0.6 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, the call within OPEC to curtail the supply of crude oil, was encouraged. In 2010 and 2011 respectively 100,000 barrels / day on a total of 28.8 million barrels / day, or 29.1 million barrels. The forecast for the actual supply in the third quarter of 2010 amounted to 29.2 million barrels per day, so provides no market incentives. The supply from non-OPEC countries will increase 2011, so the IEA, in the year to 52.9 million barrels/day. BP has meanwhile closed proposed leak hole, what but still based on the yield means a loss of around 60,000 barrels per day into the Gulf of Mexico. Regional project delays are likely to increase the loss in 2011 to a total of 100,000 barrels per day. The global refinery throughput increased 2010, 73.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter according to the IEA estimated. A further increase to 74.7 million barrels is expected in the third quarter. A slight recovery in the United States, as well as further growth in non – OECD countries and in Asia provide according to IEA growth compared with the previous year. States of Europe, Pacific and Latin America show the OECD still deficits, but due to extensive maintenance or operational problems Although here in Q3 2010 improvement can be expected. GAS REVIEW Hamburg Thomas Bakosch